we are doing a special live edition of this show on sunday night, because, well, isn't it obvious? . . how close? let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. let me start with this. president obama has got a spring in his step this friday before the election propelled by a good week on the job and 171,000 new jobs in this morning's report. he's out there in ohio fighting the good fight. i only make predictions when people make me make them, but the trajectory, the momentum, now seems pro-obama. pennsylvania will hold, ohio looks good but close, and all the battlegrounds look winnable for the president. the huge question is turnout, that and rational self-interest. the young who believe in science, women who believe in protecting their rights, latinos

who can see a brighter future with a supportive president all need to get out, show up, and vote. there's no reward for a failure. in a free society, a democratic society is a failure, deeply personal, you blew it if you don't vote. let's see where it stands. i'm joined by mother jones washington bureau chief david corn and joy reid. do you think i'm a little strong? >> no. >> i don't want to talk to anybody after this election if they haven't bothered to vote. with four days to go, president obama and mitt romney made their closing arguments today at multiple stops in ohio and wisconsin. take a look at some of the sights and sounds from this day of campaigning. ♪ >> in this campaign he's tried as hard as he can to repackage, to repackage these same policies and offer them up as change. >> do you want more of the same or do you want real change? >> giving more power back to the biggest banks, that's not change.

>> and we need real change. >> another $5 trillion tax cut that favors the wealthy, that's not change. >> president obama has tried to convince folks that these last four years have been a success. >> by the way, when you try to change the facts just because they're inconvenient to your campaign, that's definitely not change. >> he wants to take all the ideas from the first term, you know, the stimulus, the borrowing, obama care, all the rest, and then go back and do it all over again. >> you may be frustrated sometimes at the pace of change, but you know what i believe. >> we're four days away from a fresh start, four days away from the first day of a new beginning. >> you know that i'll fight for you and your family every single day as hard as i know how. you know that. >> we've got joy. >> i was going to answer that. >> joy reid. my new friend and my old friend. thank you both for joining us. everybody knows the stakes are enormous.

it is how people react over the weekend. that's signals aren't just where they're at, they're being radiated on the nightly news, this program, everywhere. aren't you impressed by romney who is often very stiff and overdressed, never unbuttons his tie, more dressed up than ever. obama wearing the grandfather cardigan or whatever he's got on. i love that kind of sweater, my wife hates it. >> fdr. >> romney looks like he's going to a board meeting, and he doesn't exactly sound like a guy giving a rousing rally. he sounds like somebody -- >> what's with the president of the united states with that costume on today? >> he's doing cool obama. he needs the young vote. >> is that what it is? >> i think right now i'd rather be barack obama than mitt romney. if you look at the polls, his campaign feels pretty good about where they are, and so he's sort of enjoying this. >> i get up this morning and started clocking it around 8:00. i started clocking minute to minute to minute to get the jobless number. then i go, i did say this before, i said if it's underrated it's okay for obama. if it's up a tick it's okay. but i didn't think the good news would be 171,000 new jobs, which is way above the 125,000 predicted, and now we have three

months of 170,000-plus. >> you notice -- >> so it is starting to go up substantially. >> if you compare it to what happened when -- four years ago, i think they lost 400,000 jobs or so this month, it is change for the better. i notice -- >> i'd say. >> i notice today there was a lot less arguing about these jobs numbers than there have been the last -- >> you spoke too soon. someone who wasn't pleased with the jobs report was mitt romney. here he is with his statement. the candidate said, quote, this is a statement, today's increase in the unemployment rate is a sad remainder that the economy is at a virtual standstill. creating 171,000 jobs a month. that's not the strongest knock. >> ronald reagan proved it's about trajectory. the trajectory of the jobs numbers. do people feel like the economy is getting better? are things looking better? if you look in states that matter, places like ohio where the economy has gotten substantially better and they can pinpoint why. they can point to that auto bailout.

if you're in michigan or ohio you can point to that reason why, and that reason why has barack obama's name on it. >> if you listen to the little clips we played, it seems as though barack obama is energized -- >> that's apparent. >> mitt romney is going through the motions. >> let's go to the facts here we have on the table. i love the atmospherics. that's why i wanted to start with this. let's go to this peaking question. dick nixon, richard nixon, he was a smart politician as they go, and he used to believe -- he didn't want to the run all out. you're exhausted by election day. he said you have to peak at the right time. he almost caught kennedy. he was three days late. three more days he might have caught him. humphrey almost caught nixon in '68. these elections go through rhythms. >> mitt romney peaked exactly where john kerry peaked in 2004, the first debate. they both had a first great debate, got a great bounce, and it dissipated -- >> slowly dissipated. >> -- over the course of the campaign, and they couldn't get the wind back. >> i'm not sure obama is peaking at the best moment, but the campaign, particularly in ohio,

seems to have reached a plateau, this small -- >> why do you come with this debbie downer -- >> let me finish. >> are you irish? >> i'm jewish, close. >> dim scenario. >> if you look at ohio, it has narrowed in the last couple weeks, but it's hit this 4% mark and it hasn't changed -- >> let's go to -- >> obama steady -- >> let's go by what obama thinks -- not obama, romney thinks. i think he has done more than we know. here is romney with eric fern strom. if he thinks he's winning, why is he throwing these mud balls like this guy is hanging around with chavez? why he throwing mud balls about jeeps going to china when it's not true? why is he heading to pennsylvania? i just checked with neil, one of the top consultants in pennsylvania, he said four points to six points. he says they will only lose -- >> why are they going to minnesota? why are they going to -- >> he's suggesting he's desperate. >> i think it is.

they have had -- their overarching strategy has been kitchen sink. everything at all times, keep throwing things at the wall and we'll hope because the economy is not good, people will vote for mitt romney even though they don't like him. >> here is -- >> at the end of the game when they're looking at the numbers and they see they can't close that gap in ohio no matter what they've done and i think last week might have hurt them in ohio -- >> might have? >> they're going -- >> an older reference to the nba, when you're behind by seven or eight points, you start fouling. >> you start fouling. >> the reason you foul, you have got to get the ball back. the other guy gets the foul shot, nobody likes the looks of it. >> they built their entire game plan, the romney campaign, on that over 8% unemployment. once they lost that, and that was really what mitt romney was running on, once you lose that argument, they didn't have any place else to go. they went to welfare reform and extraneous things where they're basically like let's get your voters angry, uncomfortable, get them to come up because they hate the guy. the problem is not enough americans hate barack obama --

>> i'll tell you what i'm impressed by is obama bringing in the cavalry. he brought in colin powell. i bumped into him about a month ago and said, are you going to endorse him or not? he want tell me. just at the right time. he got bloomberg coming out -- >> and by the way -- >> now the biggest endorsement you can get, the best surrogate on this planet is bill clinton. the former president has been all over the country for obama. he's lost his voice he's working so hard. here he was in florida today. let's take a look. five stops down there. >> what president obama is saying, look at me, i'm always willing to work with republicans, i work with governor christie in new jersey on sandy. i tried to work with him on the budget. i tried to work with him on health care. and what they say is we'll work with the democrats if you put us in charge. now, that's the message, and you just have to decide whether you think that's a good message. >> there's bill out there.

getting all the attention, but it's great. >> there is no better surrogate for anybody than bill clinton. he's very popular in florida. i'll tell what you else, bloomberg, he might as well also be the mayor of broward county. there are so many new yorkers who are dual residents. >> they still read "the new york post" because they think it's liberal. >> they still read "the new york post." florida has 22% independents, people who listen to bloomberg and clinton, and that fema thing i think is also going to hurt romney. >> author think shift used to be, when she would delair the victory, it was over. >> florida may be too far a bridge for barack obama, but by putting bill clinton and all the things you mentioned, it means the romney campaign has to pay attention to it. >> let's talk about "the washington post" editorial today because it gets to the question of fouling. of breaking the rules and going -- basically saying things that even the totally independent people say is dishonest. here it is, quote, "washington post," through all the flip-flops there's been one consistency in the campaign of republican presidential nominee mitt romney. a contempt for the electorate. how else to explain his refusal to disclose essential

information, how other than an assumption that voters are too dim to remember what mr. romney has said across the years and months, to account for his breathtaking ideological shifts. within limits all candidates say and do what they have to say and do to win. mr. romney by contrast seems to be betting voters have no memories, poor arithmetic skills, and a general inability to look behind the curtain. here is some breaking news from new york. wnbc reports that the new york marathon cancelled. by the way, the big problem, i believe, was staten island. that was going to be the starting point. they didn't want all those people coming out there from all around the world. thank you, david corn. thank you, joy read. coming up, all eyes are on

ohio. both candidates are focusing on the buckeye state. senator brown is fighting to hold his seat out there. we are going to talk to him about the situation in ohio. control of the united states senate is on the line. we all know that. missouri, senator claire mccaskill, the most closely run race. and her opponent, carl aiken. the president's response to the devastation caused by sandy earned from governor chris christie and other east coast leaders, including mayor bloomberg. a recent poll those that 78% of americans also think he did a good or excellent josh dealing with the storm. could the storm be the pivotal moment, the black swan in the race? let me finish with the bottom line on this election eve, and i ask this to everybody, fair question, is obama a good president? think about it. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

we have got to the point where we count hours, not days. take a look at their travel schedules, for the president, colorado, iowa, wisconsin, ohio, new hampshire, virginia, and florida, of course. for governor romney, those seven state plus husband newly contested addition. he is going to virginia. zero in on today and you can see what matters most, ohio, ohio, ohio as the late tim russert would say. three stops for the president and two for mitt romney who began his morning in wisconsin, another key rust belt battleground. congressman sherrod brown knows a little about buckeye state politics, and joan walsh is managing editor of salon.com and a political analyst. senator brown, sir, you know

that state. i think you look like ohio. i think you are ohio. you're the labor guy. you're a blue collar kind of guy. you look like a senator from out there. you remind me of the late pete williams of new jersey, but you never had his problems. this is the question, why are you having a tough race? i don't get this guy running against you, this kid. is it all this money being pumped in there? what's made this even interesting, not for you. it's been nervous for you. why is it interesting to watch? >> well, it's $31 million, they spent more money against me than any senate race in the country. we figure it's oil company money and wall street money. >> is this americans for prosperity, the koch brothers? >> it's all different groups. it's not a super pac, it's not disclosed money. it's directed by karl rove. he's directing the choir and this group comes in -- >> crossroads gps. i know it well. >> it's 45,000 ads so far. there are eight groups right now in the state together running --

eight individual groups running ads. the only way you fight that is grassroots, and we've got a great grassroots operation. sherrodbrown.com, people can join us. we've got lots of people that have done everything from small contributions to knocking on doors and doing phone banks, and that's how you beat this kind of money. it's the only way a progressive populist democrat in a state as tough as ohio wins. you fight back that way. >> there's some things i keep worrying about. ohio is one i worry about. i wonder about the secretary of state out there. i wonder about the stumble we had last time, the people kept questioning -- i'm talking about 2004, real questions about the count out in ohio. what do you see? what do you see -- we have 650 obama lawyers in cuyahoga county being on the lookout for any kind of monkey business out there. what do you hear? what's coming? >> well, i think --

>> in terms of trouble. >> there may be trouble. i think we are all worried about voter suppression. we're somewhat worried about diebold, about getting the ground game out, but the ground game is excellent, chris. i feel optimistic. it's not a slam dunk, but you're right, senator brown's race should not be close. he's amazing, he's excellent, but they've thrown a lot of money at it and got very cocky after john kasich won the governorship, but the optimistic and positive thing is a year and a half ago the white house -- the campaign was looking for a way to win back the white house without ohio. they were very concerned about ohio. they were looking at the sunbelt as being better than the rust belt. now the rust belt is coming through for the president, and it really is white working class voters who are doing much better for the president, much more behind the president than they are in most other places in the country, and i think senator brown can talk to that. >> let's go back to senator brown. i forgot the intellectuals

around the president about a year ago were talking we're going to run a new democratic party. i said why are you guys doing that? you have to dance with the one that brung you. the democratic party is based on the industrial people, the part of the country that built this country. your thoughts about this, senator brown, how does it affect the race, the fact they're back fighting it out for ohio, not thinking these other things out in the country. >> joan's comments were exactly right as yours were, chris, except it's not the rust belt, it's the tech belt now, and there are a lot of great things going on. our unemployment rate around the time of the auto rescue before it took hold in the recovery act, the unemployment rate in this state was 10.6%. now it's 7%. not good enough, still too many unemployed people that want jobs, but you can see the auto rescue. you can see what's happening with the president's emphasis on trade enforcement, on community colleges, on small business, and this state's coming back and >> thank you, sherrod brown, share you, joan walsh.

president obama won the endorsement of mayor michael bloomberg, and today mitt romney won the endorsement of another one-percenter. i can't wait to see what that is. this sunday join me for a special edition of "hardball" at 7:00 eastern. we have special guests on sunday, just us, vice president joe biden is going to join us on "hardball" sunday night at 5:00 and 7:00. this is "hardball," the place for politics.

i saw a campaign ad today. you tell me what this means. >> america is facing problems of historic proportions, and your vote could mean the difference between prosperity and ruin, but who will you choose? will you vote for the elite, multimillionaire, hardard-educated lawyer who overhauled the health care

system or the elite, multimillionaire lawyer who overhauled the health care system? choose wisely, america. >> back to "hardball." first a plug for mitt romney from "the simpsons." here is mr. burns, the fictional and highly unpopular owner of springfield's nuclear plant, in pre-election panic mode. >> i have to say, despite those unimaginably horrible good job numbers, we're feeling pretty confident. there's only one thing that might deny us the presidency that is the god-given property of the republican party. >> the 47% tape? >> nope. >> the empty chair? >> nope. >> cayman islands? >> not a problem. >> swiss bank accounts? $10,000 bet? i like to fire people? >> no. it's a shaggy dog story about an actual shaggy dog. apparently while on vacation old mitt strapped his mutt to the roof of his car for a brief 650-mile jaunt. so tonight we will explain what truly happened. now, sheamus, what did you think

of being strapped to the roof of your dada's car? what's that? you liked being tied to the roof of the car? because it allowed you to see more of this great land of ours and it's wonderful natural resources? ripe for drilling and mining and exploiting. anyway. >> wow. that's one way to commemorate the low lights of the campaign by romney. also it's officially crunch time for get out to vote initiatives. here is actor steve carell's final pitch to encourage his fans to head to the polls. >> why are you taking such an attitude with me? why are you yelling at me? i don't think you should be yelled at to vote. you should want to vote. well, i actually have billions of young fans, not millions. and why do i think they should all vote? without putting too fine a point on it, it is a responsibility. click here. click here. click here. click here. no, wait, click here. >> wow. got to love that deadpan delivery, but his point is a serious one obviously. finally, total blackout.

last month i told you a few days before the election george w. bush would give the keynote speech at a conference in the cayman islands, one of the offshore tax havens where mitt romney has invested millions of dollars. not ideal timing for the campaign of romney. the event went on as planned yesterday, but don't expect any kind of review of w.'s speech. according to nbc, quote, the keynote speech by the former president was totally closed to all journalists, and conference organizers were banned from discussing any aspect of it. an event spokesman said the restrictions were imposed by the former president's own staff. there you have it. any advice the former president had for investing money in offshore tax havens was reserved for the people who paid $4,000 to attend the conference. by the way, "the miami herald" posted the ap's account of w's speech on their website. there's no mention of mitt romney in the piece, but check out the similar stories bar next to the piece. topics like mitt romney's tax

return fails to quiet critics and mitt romney and the 47%. i guess it could have been worse. that's "hardball" for now. coming up next, your business with j.j. ramberg. take your campaign back to chicago and let us get about reuniting america. jenna shared her recipe with sharon,

who emailed it to emily, who sent it to cindy, who wondered why her soup wasn't quite the same.

the recipe's not the recipe... ohhh. [ female announcer ] ...without swanson. the broth cooks trust most when making soup. mmmm! [ female announcer ] the secret is swanson.